This panel gathers global macroeconomic indicators — growth, inflation, rates, FX, and risk perception. Together, they form the backdrop that influences all asset classes.
Sentiment & News of the Week
Sentiment Index
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Positive
15%
Pos
71%
Neu
14%
Neg
Source: VADER (sentiment), Perplexity AI (geopolitical), Claude API (commentary)
Global Macro Map
Interactive map with macroeconomic indicators by country — GDP, inflation, rates, FX, and bond yields[?]. Toggle between layers (type and period) and click any country to open the detail panel.
How to read this map: Each bubble is a country. Color indicates the selected indicator's value (green/warm = high, blue/cool = low). Size reflects relative GDP. Use the layer buttons to switch between indicators and periods. Click a country to see all data.
▸Methodology Note — Macro Map
What is this map?
A global view of macroeconomic indicators by country, updated weekly. Each bubble represents a country, colored and sized according to the selected layer (stock index, FX, inflation, etc.).
Data sources
• Stock indices — 38 countries via EODHD (1M, 3M, YTD, 12M returns)
• FX — ~40 pairs vs USD from forex.db (more precise than FRED)
• Macro — GDP, inflation, rates, yields, unemployment, debt/GDP via FRED (~45 countries)
• Geopolitical — AI-generated sentiment (Perplexity) per country
How to read?
Use the layer buttons (type and period) to switch between indicators. Click any country to open a detail panel with all available indicators. Warm colors = high values, cool colors = low values.
A global view of macroeconomic indicators by country, updated weekly. Each bubble represents a country, colored and sized according to the selected layer (stock index, FX, inflation, etc.).
Data sources
• Stock indices — 38 countries via EODHD (1M, 3M, YTD, 12M returns)
• FX — ~40 pairs vs USD from forex.db (more precise than FRED)
• Macro — GDP, inflation, rates, yields, unemployment, debt/GDP via FRED (~45 countries)
• Geopolitical — AI-generated sentiment (Perplexity) per country
How to read?
Use the layer buttons (type and period) to switch between indicators. Click any country to open a detail panel with all available indicators. Warm colors = high values, cool colors = low values.
Source: FRED, EODHD, forex.db, Perplexity AI
Taylor Rule Monitor
Deviation between the Taylor Rule[?] prescribed rate and the actual policy rate for 29 economies. Bars to the right (gold) indicate looser monetary policy than prescribed; to the left (blue), tighter.
Taylor Rule data not available.
How to read this chart: Each bar is a country. Gold bars to the right = rates below prescribed (loose policy). Blue bars to the left = rates above prescribed (tight policy). Longer bars indicate greater misalignment between actual rates and what economic conditions suggest.
▸Methodology Note — Taylor Rule
What is the Taylor Rule?
A formula created by economist John Taylor (1993) that calculates what a country's interest rate should be based on two variables: how much inflation is above or below the target, and how much the economy is above or below its potential (the so-called output gap).
How does it work?
The formula is: i = r* + π + 0.5·(π − π*) + 0.5·gap
• r* — neutral real interest rate (when the economy is in equilibrium)
• π — current inflation (annual CPI)
• π* — central bank's inflation target
• gap — output gap: how much GDP is above (+) or below (−) potential
The gap is estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (λ=1600) on quarterly real GDP since 1995. The HP trend represents potential output; the percentage deviation is the gap.
What does the deviation mean?
• Positive deviation (gold) — real rates are below prescribed → looser monetary policy than recommended
• Negative deviation (blue) — rates are above prescribed → tighter monetary policy
What is it for?
Identifying which countries have rates misaligned with economic conditions — which can anticipate changes in monetary policy or movements in FX and equities.
A formula created by economist John Taylor (1993) that calculates what a country's interest rate should be based on two variables: how much inflation is above or below the target, and how much the economy is above or below its potential (the so-called output gap).
How does it work?
The formula is: i = r* + π + 0.5·(π − π*) + 0.5·gap
• r* — neutral real interest rate (when the economy is in equilibrium)
• π — current inflation (annual CPI)
• π* — central bank's inflation target
• gap — output gap: how much GDP is above (+) or below (−) potential
The gap is estimated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter (λ=1600) on quarterly real GDP since 1995. The HP trend represents potential output; the percentage deviation is the gap.
What does the deviation mean?
• Positive deviation (gold) — real rates are below prescribed → looser monetary policy than recommended
• Negative deviation (blue) — rates are above prescribed → tighter monetary policy
What is it for?
Identifying which countries have rates misaligned with economic conditions — which can anticipate changes in monetary policy or movements in FX and equities.
Source: FRED (GDP, CPI), BCB SGS 432 (Selic)
Global FX
Performance of major currencies against the US dollar across multiple periods. Positive returns indicate currency appreciation vs USD. The scatter plot shows the correlation[?] between FX and equities by country.
▸ Currency Details
| Currency | Rate [?] | 1S [?] | 1M | 3M | YTD | 12M | Loading [?] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Ruble | 72.4500 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +7.8% | +8.0% | +7.9% | — |
| Israeli Shekel | 2.8973 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +6.2% | +9.1% | +13.7% | — |
| Hungarian Forint | 309.1800 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +4.3% | +5.5% | +9.5% | — |
| Norwegian Krone | 9.2649 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +3.2% | +8.1% | +8.6% | — |
| Egyptian Pound | 53.2700 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +2.5% | -11.7% | -8.2% | — |
| Brazilian Real | 4.9907 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +2.1% | +8.9% | +9.1% | — |
| Australian Dollar | 0.7142 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +1.4% | +7.0% | +9.8% | — |
| Mexican Peso | 17.2914 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.9% | +3.9% | +7.4% | — |
| Swiss Franc | 0.7853 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.7% | — |
| Canadian Dollar | 1.3743 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | — |
| Chinese Yuan | 6.8005 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.4% | +2.8% | +5.2% | — |
| Nigerian Naira | 1371.0200 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.4% | +5.2% | +10.6% | — |
| Taiwan Dollar | 31.6150 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.4% | -0.9% | -8.6% | — |
| New Zealand Dollar | 0.5829 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.7% | -2.8% | — |
| Czech Koruna | 20.8710 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.2% | -1.4% | +0.8% | — |
| British Pound | 1.3415 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.4% | -1.5% | — |
| Malaysian Ringgit | 3.9720 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.1% | +2.0% | +6.2% | — |
| Polish Zloty | 3.6420 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +0.1% | -1.4% | -1.2% | — |
| Vietnamese Dong | 26357.0000 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.8% | — |
| Euro | 1.1643 | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.9% | -0.8% | — |
| Japanese Yen | 158.9400 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.2% | -1.4% | -8.9% | — |
| Chilean Peso | 900.4000 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.3% | -0.0% | +4.5% | — |
| Singapore Dollar | 1.2796 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.4% | +0.5% | +0.0% | — |
| Argentine Peso | 1396.0000 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.7% | +3.8% | -10.6% | — |
| Swedish Krona | 9.4006 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.9% | -2.0% | +1.4% | — |
| Peruvian Sol | 3.4223 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -1.1% | -1.8% | +4.0% | — |
| South African Rand | 16.6388 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -1.5% | -0.8% | +6.8% | — |
| Thai Baht | 32.6000 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -1.6% | -3.5% | +0.1% | — |
| Korean Won | 1504.5800 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -1.8% | -4.3% | -9.4% | — |
| Turkish Lira | 45.5644 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -2.2% | -6.1% | -14.0% | — |
| Romanian Leu | 4.4737 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% | -4.3% | — |
| Colombian Peso | 3797.7200 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -2.9% | -1.5% | +5.8% | — |
| Philippine Peso | 61.6300 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -3.6% | -4.7% | -8.9% | — |
| Indian Rupee | 96.3500 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -4.1% | -7.1% | -12.3% | — |
| Indonesian Rupiah | 17705.8200 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -4.1% | -6.2% | -9.1% | — |
Positive returns = currency appreciated vs USD. 90d sparkline shows cumulative % change.
Loading: FX→equity transmission coefficient estimated via PanelOLS with country fixed effects and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. Negative values indicate currency depreciation is associated with local stock market decline.
▸Methodology Note — Global FX
What does this section show?
The performance of major world currencies against the US dollar (USD), grouped by region. Positive returns mean the currency appreciated against the dollar.
Data sources
Daily quotes for ~40 currency pairs via EODHD, stored in forex.db. Returns calculated for 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, YTD, and 12-month periods. Sparklines show cumulative change over the last 90 days.
FX × equity correlation
The scatter plot crosses FX return (3M) with local equity index return. Pearson correlation (ρ) shows the degree of association: values near +1 indicate that when the currency appreciates, the stock market tends to rise as well.
What is it for?
Mapping which currencies are strengthening or weakening, and how that relates to local equity markets.
The performance of major world currencies against the US dollar (USD), grouped by region. Positive returns mean the currency appreciated against the dollar.
Data sources
Daily quotes for ~40 currency pairs via EODHD, stored in forex.db. Returns calculated for 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, YTD, and 12-month periods. Sparklines show cumulative change over the last 90 days.
FX × equity correlation
The scatter plot crosses FX return (3M) with local equity index return. Pearson correlation (ρ) shows the degree of association: values near +1 indicate that when the currency appreciates, the stock market tends to rise as well.
What is it for?
Mapping which currencies are strengthening or weakening, and how that relates to local equity markets.
Source: EODHD forex.db
When Currencies Fall, What Happens to Stocks?
We measure the daily impact of currency depreciation on each country's stock market using panel regression[?]. The more negative the score, the greater the vulnerability of local stocks to currency shocks.
▸Methodology Note — FX → Equity Panel
What is this analysis?
It measures how much each country's stock market reacts when its currency weakens. The idea is simple: in many countries, when the currency weakens, foreign capital leaves and stocks fall together. But the intensity of this reaction varies widely across countries.
How does it work?
We use panel regression with entity and time fixed effects, analyzing daily returns from 38 countries. Controls isolate global factors (S&P 500, VIX, gold, oil) to measure the pure effect of currency on local stocks. Four robustness models confirm results:
• Base model (FX → equity)
• With global controls (SPY, VIX, GLD, CL)
• With structural interactions (real rates, export profile)
• Full model (all factors)
What amplifies the effect?
Countries with high real rates or heavy commodity export dependence tend to suffer more: speculative capital flees at the same time the currency weakens, amplifying the stock decline.
How to read?
Bars to the left (red) = stocks fall when currency weakens. Longer bars mean higher sensitivity. Stars (★) indicate statistical significance.
It measures how much each country's stock market reacts when its currency weakens. The idea is simple: in many countries, when the currency weakens, foreign capital leaves and stocks fall together. But the intensity of this reaction varies widely across countries.
How does it work?
We use panel regression with entity and time fixed effects, analyzing daily returns from 38 countries. Controls isolate global factors (S&P 500, VIX, gold, oil) to measure the pure effect of currency on local stocks. Four robustness models confirm results:
• Base model (FX → equity)
• With global controls (SPY, VIX, GLD, CL)
• With structural interactions (real rates, export profile)
• Full model (all factors)
What amplifies the effect?
Countries with high real rates or heavy commodity export dependence tend to suffer more: speculative capital flees at the same time the currency weakens, amplifying the stock decline.
How to read?
Bars to the left (red) = stocks fall when currency weakens. Longer bars mean higher sensitivity. Stars (★) indicate statistical significance.
Source: EODHD (indices, FX), FRED (global factors)
Risk Perception
How much stress is in the financial system right now? This composite index combines 20 volatility and credit indicators (VIX, commodity volatility, credit spreads, risk ETFs) into a unified view of systemic risk[?]. The chart shows which dimension (equities, credit, EM) is dominating stress.
34
Elevated Fear
How to read this chart: The stacked area chart shows systemic risk evolution over time. Each colored band represents a risk category (equity volatility, credit, EM, etc.). When a band expands, that dimension is dominating stress. The radar on the right compares the current profile with 3 months ago.
▸Methodology Note — Systemic Risk Perception
What is systemic risk?
Risk that affects the financial system as a whole — not just a single asset or sector. When systemic risk rises, all risky assets tend to fall together.
How do we measure it?
We combine 20 series in a unified analysis via PCA (Principal Component Analysis):
• 8 CBOE volatility indices — VIX (US equities), OVX (oil), GVZ (gold), VXEEM (EM), VXFXI (China), VXEFA (developed ex-US), MOVE (bonds), TYVIX (treasuries)
• 12 credit proxy ETFs — HYG, JNK (high yield), LQD, VCIT (investment grade), KRE, KBE (banks), EMB, PCY (emerging), TLT, IEF (treasuries), SHY (short-term), BKLN (loans)
PCA extracts the "common factor" that explains most of the co-movement across these series — that factor is our systemic risk index.
How to read the chart?
The stacked area chart decomposes each category's contribution (equity volatility, commodities, credit, emerging markets, etc.) to total risk. When a slice expands, that dimension is dominating market stress.
Risk that affects the financial system as a whole — not just a single asset or sector. When systemic risk rises, all risky assets tend to fall together.
How do we measure it?
We combine 20 series in a unified analysis via PCA (Principal Component Analysis):
• 8 CBOE volatility indices — VIX (US equities), OVX (oil), GVZ (gold), VXEEM (EM), VXFXI (China), VXEFA (developed ex-US), MOVE (bonds), TYVIX (treasuries)
• 12 credit proxy ETFs — HYG, JNK (high yield), LQD, VCIT (investment grade), KRE, KBE (banks), EMB, PCY (emerging), TLT, IEF (treasuries), SHY (short-term), BKLN (loans)
PCA extracts the "common factor" that explains most of the co-movement across these series — that factor is our systemic risk index.
How to read the chart?
The stacked area chart decomposes each category's contribution (equity volatility, commodities, credit, emerging markets, etc.) to total risk. When a slice expands, that dimension is dominating market stress.
Source: FRED (VIX, VXN, VXEEM, GVZ, OVX), EODHD (credit ETFs)
Weekly Reading
No momentum, technology and healthcare stocks like PANW (90) and CERS (88) are in the spotlight, while institutional money flows predominantly into healthcare and emerging market ETFs, with inflows of +578M into the Health Care Select Sector SPDR and +576M into the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Mar, contrasting with massive outflows of -8131M from SPAC ETFs and -7191M from the SPDR S&P 500. The current market regime is clearly risk-on, with a 79% probability for this scenario and only 0% risk of neutrality or reversal, also reflected in the 3M fuzzy backback that showed an average return of 13.7% and a win rate of 74%.
This panel provides insight into which types of assets are performing better or worse — and why. All analyses are based on robust quantitative methodologies widely used in academic and institutional settings.
Assets in Momentum (Uptrend)
The system uses fuzzy logic[?] to evaluate each asset: instead of rigid rules (e.g., "above 20-day moving average → bullish"), it assigns membership degrees to various bullish indicators. 11 rules combine these degrees to generate a signal (strong or moderate) with a confidence between 0 and 1. A momentum score is generated by weighting each evaluated indicator. The 6 assets with the highest score are shown in each group below. Click "View Details" to see the recent price chart. Below, we present a backtest of the methodology to assess whether the score predicted positive returns retrospectively.
▸ Top International Stocks — Fuzzy Momentum
PANW
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Score 90 · P100
▸
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. oferece soluções de segurança cibernética nas Américas, Europa, Oriente Médio, África, Ásia-Pacífico e Japão.
Perf 1M
+28.0%
Perf 6M
+91.3%
Sharpe 1Y
1.83
P/E300.1
Margem8.0%
ROE4.8%
D/E0.04
Mkt Cap$283.7B
CERS
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Score 88 · P100
▸
Cerus Corporation atua como uma empresa de produtos biomédicos. A empresa concentra-se em desenvolver e comercializar o INTERCEPT Blood System para aprimorar a segurança do sangue.
Perf 1M
+17.6%
Perf 6M
+56.9%
Sharpe 1Y
1.95
Margem-4.4%
ROE-15.4%
D/E0.88
Mkt Cap$601M
TXG
Healthcare · Health Information Services
Score 84 · P100
▸
10x Genomics, Inc. desenvolve e vende instrumentos, consumíveis e software para analisar sistemas biológicos nos Estados Unidos, no restante das Américas, na Europa, no Oriente Médio, na África, na China e no restante da Ásia-Pacífico.
Perf 1M
+19.4%
Perf 6M
+149.2%
Sharpe 1Y
3.84
Margem-3.5%
ROE-3.0%
D/E0.20
Mkt Cap$5.0B
ILMN
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Score 84 · P100
▸
A Illumina, Inc. fornece soluções baseadas em sequenciamento e em matriz para análise genética e genômica nas Américas, Europa, Grande China, Ásia-Pacífico, Oriente Médio e África.
Perf 1M
+15.6%
Perf 6M
+44.2%
Sharpe 1Y
2.33
P/E33.4
Margem19.4%
ROE33.8%
D/E0.94
Mkt Cap$27.8B
PBF
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Score 84 · P100
▸
PBF Energy Inc., por meio de suas subsidiárias, atua no refino e fornecimento de produtos de petróleo. Opera por meio de dois segmentos, Refining e Logistics.
Perf 1M
+15.2%
Perf 6M
+86.9%
Sharpe 1Y
1.70
P/E12.7
Margem1.5%
ROE8.2%
Div Yield2.42%
D/E0.55
Mkt Cap$5.7B
TBLA
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Score 83 · P100
▸
Taboola.com Ltd., juntamente com suas subsidiárias, opera uma plataforma de motor algorítmico baseada em inteligência artificial em Israel, Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Alemanha e internacionalmente. Ela oferece Taboola, que é uma plataforma que faz parceria com sites, dispositivos e aplicativos ...
Perf 1M
+16.7%
Perf 6M
+37.9%
Sharpe 1Y
0.99
P/E14.4
Margem5.6%
ROE11.2%
D/E0.21
Mkt Cap$1.4B
PARR
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Score 83 · P100
▸
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., uma empresa de energia, fornece combustíveis renováveis e convencionais nos Estados Unidos. A empresa opera por meio de três segmentos: Refining, Retail e Logistics.
Perf 1M
+9.3%
Perf 6M
+60.8%
Sharpe 1Y
2.11
P/E6.6
Margem6.0%
ROE33.3%
D/E0.92
Mkt Cap$2.9B
ACRS
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Score 83 · P100
▸
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc., uma empresa biofarmacêutica em estágio clínico, atua na descoberta e desenvolvimento de candidatos a novos produtos de moléculas para doenças imunoinflamatórias nos Estados Unidos. O pipeline de produtos da empresa inclui Bosakitug (ATI-045), um anticorpo monoclonal an...
Perf 1M
+16.6%
Perf 6M
+78.2%
Sharpe 1Y
2.98
Margem0.0%
ROE-48.4%
D/E0.02
Mkt Cap$746M
▸ Top Brazilian Stocks — Fuzzy Momentum
PATI3.SA
Basic Materials · Steel
Score 82 · P100
▸
A Panatlântica S.A. produz e vende produtos de aço principalmente no Brasil.
Perf 1M
+20.6%
Perf 6M
+17.1%
Sharpe 1Y
0.02
P/E17.2
Margem2.6%
ROE6.3%
D/E0.47
Mkt Cap$838M
AURA33.SA
Basic Materials · Gold
Score 79 · P99
▸
Aura Minerals Inc., uma empresa de produção de ouro e cobre, concentra-se no desenvolvimento e operação de projetos de ouro e metais básicos nas Américas. Opera por meio dos segmentos The Minosa Mine, The Apoena Mine, the Aranzazu Mine, The Almas Mine, and The Borborema Mine and the Serra Grande ...
Perf 1M
+16.1%
Perf 6M
+37.6%
Sharpe 1Y
2.05
P/E54.5
Margem7.8%
ROE40.3%
Div Yield1.38%
D/E1.55
Mkt Cap$26.4B
CSMG3.SA
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Score 75 · P99
▸
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais planeja, executa, amplia, remodela e explora serviços públicos de saneamento básico, abastecimento de água, esgoto, saneamento e resíduos sólidos no Brasil e internacionalmente. Atua na coleta, tratamento e distribuição de água tratada aos consumidores fina...
Perf 1M
+9.3%
Perf 6M
+46.9%
Sharpe 1Y
3.92
P/E17.1
Margem16.1%
ROE15.9%
Div Yield2.08%
D/E0.90
Mkt Cap$23.2B
CXSE3.SA
Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
Score 73 · P98
▸
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A., juntamente com suas subsidiárias, fornece produtos de seguros no Brasil e internacionalmente. A empresa opera em três segmentos: Run-Off/Open Sea, Security e Distribution.
Perf 1M
+16.3%
Perf 6M
+27.1%
Sharpe 1Y
1.77
P/E13.6
Margem75.1%
ROE31.6%
Div Yield5.08%
D/E0.00
Mkt Cap$59.6B
UGPA3.SA
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Score 72 · P98
▸
Ultrapar Participações S.A., por meio de suas subsidiárias, atua nos setores de energia, mobilidade e infraestrutura logística no Brasil, no restante da Europa, nos Estados Unidos, no Canadá, em outros países latino-americanos, na Oceania e internacionalmente. Opera por meio dos segmentos Ultraga...
Perf 1M
+13.2%
Perf 6M
+35.9%
Sharpe 1Y
1.82
P/E9.1
Margem2.1%
ROE19.2%
Div Yield4.99%
D/E1.13
Mkt Cap$27.8B
▸ Top ETFs — Fuzzy Momentum
PTH.US
ETF · ETF
Score 78 · P99
▸
O Invesco DWA Healthcare Momentum ETF (PTH) investe principalmente em ações de empresas do setor de saúde dos Estados Unidos, compondo uma carteira baseada em um índice de “momentum” de preços. Seu objetivo é oferecer exposição a companhias de saúde que apresentam forte tendência de valorização, ...
Perf 1M
+23.9%
Perf 6M
+23.6%
Sharpe 1Y
1.12
BUG.US
ETF · ETF
Score 73 · P98
▸
O Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) investe em ações de empresas globais cujo faturamento está diretamente ligado a atividades de segurança cibernética, acompanhando um índice de companhias do setor. Focado principalmente no setor de tecnologia da informação, o fundo tem exposição global com forte...
Perf 1M
+10.6%
Perf 6M
+36.7%
Sharpe 1Y
0.61
ARKG.US
ETF · ETF
Score 72 · P98
▸
O ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) é um ETF de gestão ativa que investe principalmente em ações de empresas ligadas à revolução genômica, como biotecnologia, terapias de precisão, sequenciamento de DNA, edição genética e diagnósticos moleculares, com foco predominante em companhias da área de sa...
Perf 1M
+28.4%
Perf 6M
+49.3%
Sharpe 1Y
1.01
MRNY.US
ETF · ETF
Score 68 · P97
▸
O ETF MRNY.US (Tidal Trust II YieldMax MRNA Option Income Strategy ETF) é um fundo de gestão ativa que investe nos mercados de ações e renda fixa dos Estados Unidos, usando principalmente derivativos (opções) sobre ações, especialmente ligadas ao setor de saúde e biotecnologia. Ele tem exposição ...
Perf 1M
+34.9%
Perf 6M
+41.7%
Sharpe 1Y
0.82
FAS.US
ETF · ETF
Score 66 · P97
▸
O Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) é um ETF alavancado que investe principalmente em ações de grandes empresas do setor financeiro dos Estados Unidos, como bancos, seguradoras, empresas de serviços financeiros e de mercados de capitais. Seu objetivo é entregar, em base diária, aproxi...
Perf 1M
+33.2%
Perf 6M
-0.6%
Sharpe 1Y
0.25
IBB.US
ETF · ETF
Score 66 · P97
▸
O iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) investe principalmente em ações de empresas de biotecnologia listadas nos Estados Unidos, com carteira focada no setor de saúde, especialmente em pesquisa e desenvolvimento de tratamentos terapêuticos. Seu objetivo é replicar os resultados do índice NYSE Biotechn...
Perf 1M
+16.6%
Perf 6M
+15.6%
Sharpe 1Y
1.20
UVIX.US
ETF · ETF
Score 66 · P96
▸
O ETF UVIX.US (2x Long VIX Futures ETF) é um fundo alavancado que investe em posições de futuros do VIX, especificamente nos contratos de primeiro e segundo meses com maturidade média ponderada de um mês. Seu foco é no setor de derivativos de volatilidade do mercado de ações dos EUA, sem exposiçã...
Perf 1M
+1399.5%
Perf 6M
+966.4%
Sharpe 1Y
0.79
FXO.US
ETF · ETF
Score 65 · P96
▸
O ETF FXO.US (First Trust Financials AlphaDEX® Fund) investe em ações de empresas dos setores de serviços financeiros e seguros listadas nos mercados de ações dos Estados Unidos, principalmente de grande e média capitalização. Seu foco setorial é o segmento financeiro norte-americano, replicando ...
Perf 1M
+11.5%
Perf 6M
+6.3%
Sharpe 1Y
0.55
Search Fuzzy Score
Search any stock or ETF in the universe to see its composite score, percentile, and position in the distribution.
Walk-Forward Backtest
To test whether the system really works, we went back in time: each Friday over the last 52 weeks, we recalculated scores using only data available on that date (no peeking into the future). The top 6 stocks + 6 ETFs were selected and then we measured what actually happened with those assets in the following 1, 2, and 3 months. The 3 indicators below summarize the 3-month result: the average return of the picks, how much they beat the S&P 500, and in how many weeks the picks beat the index (Win Rate — above 50% means the system got it right most weeks).
Average Return 3M
+13.7%
Excess vs S&P 500
+8.5%
Win Rate vs S&P 500
+73.9%
% of weeks that beat SPY
View Backtest Details
Source: EODHD (historical prices)
▸Methodological Note — Fuzzy Logic Momentum
What is fuzzy logic?
In traditional logic, a statement can only be true or false. In fuzzy logic, things can be partially true. For example: an asset priced 2% above its 20-day moving average is not "completely above" or "completely below" — it has an intermediate degree of membership in the "above average" group. This allows the system to capture nuances that binary rules would miss.
How does the momentum score work?
The system evaluates 5 indicators for each asset, each receiving a degree between 0 and 1:
• Weekly momentum — is the asset rising, falling, or flat?
• Position vs. 20-day moving average — is the price above or below the recent trend?
• Relative volume (10 days) — is trading volume above normal? (more people buying/selling)
• RSI (14 days) — is the asset overbought, oversold, or in a neutral zone?
• Trend type — is the trend consistently bullish, a reversal, or undefined?
11 rules combine these degrees to generate a buy signal (strong or moderate) with a confidence level. The final score weights each indicator according to its predictive importance.
Illustrative example:
Imagine an asset with the following readings: weekly momentum = 0.85 (strong rise), position vs. MA20 = 0.70 (well above average), relative volume = 0.60 (above normal), RSI = 0.55 (neutral-high zone), trend type = 0.90 (consistent uptrend). The 11 rules evaluate these combinations — for example, "if momentum is high AND position vs. MA20 is high, then the signal is strong with high confidence". The weighted final score would be approximately: 0.85×35% + 0.70×25% + 0.60×15% + 0.55×10% + 0.90×5% + confidence×10% ≈ 0.74. This score is compared against all other assets to form the ranking.
In traditional logic, a statement can only be true or false. In fuzzy logic, things can be partially true. For example: an asset priced 2% above its 20-day moving average is not "completely above" or "completely below" — it has an intermediate degree of membership in the "above average" group. This allows the system to capture nuances that binary rules would miss.
How does the momentum score work?
The system evaluates 5 indicators for each asset, each receiving a degree between 0 and 1:
• Weekly momentum — is the asset rising, falling, or flat?
• Position vs. 20-day moving average — is the price above or below the recent trend?
• Relative volume (10 days) — is trading volume above normal? (more people buying/selling)
• RSI (14 days) — is the asset overbought, oversold, or in a neutral zone?
• Trend type — is the trend consistently bullish, a reversal, or undefined?
11 rules combine these degrees to generate a buy signal (strong or moderate) with a confidence level. The final score weights each indicator according to its predictive importance.
Illustrative example:
Imagine an asset with the following readings: weekly momentum = 0.85 (strong rise), position vs. MA20 = 0.70 (well above average), relative volume = 0.60 (above normal), RSI = 0.55 (neutral-high zone), trend type = 0.90 (consistent uptrend). The 11 rules evaluate these combinations — for example, "if momentum is high AND position vs. MA20 is high, then the signal is strong with high confidence". The weighted final score would be approximately: 0.85×35% + 0.70×25% + 0.60×15% + 0.55×10% + 0.90×5% + confidence×10% ≈ 0.74. This score is compared against all other assets to form the ranking.
Source: EODHD (prices, fundamentals, 4K symbols)
ETFs — Largest Investment Inflows and Outflows (Last Week)
Shows the ETFs that received the most and lost the most capital in the last week, measured by the change in average daily trading volume. Useful for identifying where institutional money is flowing.
▸ ▲ Top Inflows (7 days)
| ETF | Flow 7d | Change | Vol/day |
|---|---|---|---|
| +$577.8M | +36.5% | $2159.6M | |
| +$576.2M | +62.0% | $1505.2M | |
| +$539.7M | +29.6% | $2363.5M | |
| +$464.5M | +58.5% | $1258.2M | |
| +$334.7M | +39.8% | $1176.3M |
▸ ▼ Top Outflows (7 days)
| ETF | Flow 7d | Change | Vol/day |
|---|---|---|---|
| $8130.7M | -35.5% | $14760.8M | |
| $7190.7M | -15.0% | $40884.1M | |
| $6667.4M | -56.5% | $5127.6M | |
| $5966.4M | -16.5% | $30290.7M | |
| $5635.9M | -54.1% | $4772.5M |
Source: EODHD (ETF prices, AUM, holdings)
Fund Performance and Alpha
Evaluates investment funds using the academic Fama-French model. The goal is to answer: does this fund truly generate value, or does it just ride known risks? Alpha (α)[?] measures the annualized return not explained by the model's 5 risk factors.
▸ Top 10 Funds — Global
| # | Ticker | Name | Alpha (α) | 1M | 6M | 12M | β Mkt | β SMB | β HML | β RMW | β CMA | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸1 | DNP | +0.0342 | +2.3% | +18.4% | +31.4% | +0.5935 | -0.0874 | -0.0000 | +0.3561 | -0.0016 | +0.3712 | |
| ▸2 | IGR | +0.0094 | +2.4% | -7.3% | -7.3% | +0.8477 | -0.0183 | -0.0000 | +0.3168 | +0.0490 | +0.3710 | |
| ▸3 | NAD | -0.0336 | +2.4% | +4.1% | +7.2% | +0.2687 | +0.0591 | -0.0000 | +0.0906 | -0.0168 | +0.2108 | |
| ▸4 | CLM | -0.0339 | -0.4% | -9.5% | +19.2% | +0.7547 | -0.3044 | -0.0000 | -0.0803 | -0.2930 | +0.4129 | |
| ▸5 | JFR | -0.0347 | +1.3% | -6.2% | -0.3% | +0.4590 | -0.1758 | -0.0000 | +0.1453 | -0.0781 | +0.3513 | |
| ▸6 | NEA | -0.0427 | +2.0% | +4.1% | +6.9% | +0.3092 | +0.1074 | -0.0000 | +0.2194 | -0.0796 | +0.2208 | |
| ▸7 | JQC | -0.0546 | +0.6% | -9.1% | -4.5% | +0.4794 | -0.1473 | -0.0000 | +0.1225 | -0.0623 | +0.3144 | |
| ▸8 | JPC | -0.0718 | +0.5% | +0.8% | +13.3% | +0.4925 | -0.2121 | -0.0000 | +0.0774 | -0.0416 | +0.3954 | |
| ▸9 | USA | -0.0802 | +0.9% | -14.4% | -3.0% | +0.7792 | -0.3023 | -0.0000 | -0.0140 | -0.1315 | +0.6846 | |
| ▸10 | CRF | -0.0881 | +0.3% | -14.3% | +11.4% | +0.7635 | -0.2635 | -0.0000 | -0.0406 | -0.2797 | +0.3209 |
▸ Top 10 Funds — Brazil
| # | Ticker | Name | Alpha (α) | 1M | 6M | 12M | β Mkt | β SMB | β HML | β RMW | β CMA | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸1 | NSDV11.SA | +0.0004 | +3.9% | +32.9% | +33.0% | +0.5209 | -0.8812 | 0.0000 | -0.0748 | +0.4409 | +0.6204 | |
| ▸2 | NDIV11.SA | -0.0142 | +3.6% | +22.6% | +22.7% | +0.4823 | -0.8828 | 0.0000 | -0.0737 | +0.4538 | +0.5389 | |
| ▸3 | MXRF11.SA | -0.0356 | -1.0% | +12.4% | +7.0% | +0.2583 | +0.1113 | -0.0000 | +0.0036 | -0.1751 | +0.0767 | |
| ▸4 | HGLG11.SA | -0.0543 | -3.8% | +2.4% | -0.0% | +0.2336 | +0.1264 | -0.0000 | +0.0143 | -0.2117 | +0.0800 | |
| ▸5 | VRTA11.SA | -0.1551 | -4.8% | +0.7% | -10.9% | +0.3126 | +0.2682 | -0.0000 | +0.0245 | -0.3509 | +0.0848 | |
| ▸6 | CXAG11.SA | -0.1572 | -0.2% | +11.3% | +6.6% | +0.1472 | +0.1326 | -0.0000 | +0.0967 | -0.2146 | +0.0493 | |
| ▸7 | APTO11.SA | -0.1705 | -0.1% | +3.9% | -3.2% | +0.1627 | +0.5323 | -0.0000 | +0.2493 | -0.3289 | +0.0710 | |
| ▸8 | AJFI11.SA | -0.1736 | -3.0% | +24.7% | +5.5% | +0.1332 | -0.0067 | 0.0000 | +0.0548 | 0.0000 | +0.0191 | |
| ▸9 | BTHF11.SA | -0.1738 | -1.0% | +37.0% | — | +0.1026 | +0.0483 | 0.0000 | +0.0745 | -0.2557 | +0.0328 | |
| ▸10 | HGBS11.SA | -0.1903 | -2.7% | +14.9% | -1.7% | +0.2855 | +0.1410 | -0.0000 | +0.0647 | -0.2366 | +0.0891 |
Search Alpha for Any Asset
Search any stock, ETF, or fund in the ~4,000-asset universe to see its alpha, Fama-French risk factor exposure, and position in the distribution.
▸Methodological Note — Fama-French 5-Factor Model
The origin of the model
In 1992, economists Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published a study that revolutionized how we evaluate investments. They discovered that a stock's return depends not only on "did the market go up or down", but on other predictable patterns. Eugene Fama received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 for this and other work on financial markets.
The core idea — in plain language
Imagine you want to evaluate whether a fund manager is truly skilled. If their fund returned 15% this year, it sounds great — but what if the entire market rose 20%? In that case, the manager actually underperformed the market. The Fama-French model goes further: it checks whether the fund's return can be explained not just by the market, but by 5 patterns (called factors) that historically generate returns:
• Market — the extra return for investing in stocks instead of risk-free bonds (how much the market as a whole went up or down)
• Size (SMB) — smaller companies tend to outperform giant ones over time, because they are riskier
• Value (HML) — "cheap" stocks (low price relative to company assets) tend to beat "expensive" ones (trendy companies with inflated prices)
• Profitability (RMW) — more profitable companies tend to deliver better returns
• Investment (CMA) — companies that invest conservatively (without overspending on expansion) tend to outperform
What is Alpha (α)?
After discounting these 5 effects, what remains is Alpha. If a fund has positive alpha, it means it generates returns beyond what would be expected given the risks it takes. This suggests genuine manager skill. If alpha is negative, the fund is destroying value — likely due to high fees, bad decisions, or poor timing.
How to read the table
• Alpha (α) — the annualized extra return (positive = good, negative = bad)
• β Mkt, β SMB, β HML, β RMW, β CMA — the fund's exposure to each factor (higher values = more exposed to that type of risk)
• R² — how much of the fund's behavior is explained by the model (0% = nothing, 100% = fully). Low R² may mean the fund has a very different strategy from the traditional stock market
In 1992, economists Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published a study that revolutionized how we evaluate investments. They discovered that a stock's return depends not only on "did the market go up or down", but on other predictable patterns. Eugene Fama received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 for this and other work on financial markets.
The core idea — in plain language
Imagine you want to evaluate whether a fund manager is truly skilled. If their fund returned 15% this year, it sounds great — but what if the entire market rose 20%? In that case, the manager actually underperformed the market. The Fama-French model goes further: it checks whether the fund's return can be explained not just by the market, but by 5 patterns (called factors) that historically generate returns:
• Market — the extra return for investing in stocks instead of risk-free bonds (how much the market as a whole went up or down)
• Size (SMB) — smaller companies tend to outperform giant ones over time, because they are riskier
• Value (HML) — "cheap" stocks (low price relative to company assets) tend to beat "expensive" ones (trendy companies with inflated prices)
• Profitability (RMW) — more profitable companies tend to deliver better returns
• Investment (CMA) — companies that invest conservatively (without overspending on expansion) tend to outperform
What is Alpha (α)?
After discounting these 5 effects, what remains is Alpha. If a fund has positive alpha, it means it generates returns beyond what would be expected given the risks it takes. This suggests genuine manager skill. If alpha is negative, the fund is destroying value — likely due to high fees, bad decisions, or poor timing.
How to read the table
• Alpha (α) — the annualized extra return (positive = good, negative = bad)
• β Mkt, β SMB, β HML, β RMW, β CMA — the fund's exposure to each factor (higher values = more exposed to that type of risk)
• R² — how much of the fund's behavior is explained by the model (0% = nothing, 100% = fully). Low R² may mean the fund has a very different strategy from the traditional stock market
Source: EODHD (4K stocks), Fama-French 5-factor model
Thematic Portfolios
The universe's assets are grouped into thematic portfolios (momentum, diversified, defensive, dollar, gold, oil, etc.) based on how they behave together. Assets that rise and fall in similar patterns are placed in the same group. Select a portfolio from the menu to see its constituent assets. Click any point in the network to see asset details and its most related peers — if the asset belongs to another portfolio, the view switches automatically.
How to read this chart: each bar represents the portfolio's exposure to a Fama-French risk factor. Bars to the right (positive) indicate the portfolio benefits from that factor. Bars to the left (negative) indicate opposite exposure. For example, a high "Market" value means the portfolio tends to rise when the market rises; a negative "Size" value indicates a preference for large companies over small ones.
▸Methodological Note — Thematic Portfolios and Correlation Network
What is a correlation network?
Imagine each asset (stock or ETF) as a dot. When two assets tend to rise and fall together, we draw a line between them. The more similar their behavior, the thicker the line. The result is a visual map where similarly-behaving assets are close together, and assets with different behavior are far apart.
How are portfolios formed?
From this network, the system automatically identifies natural clusters — groups of assets that move in similar ways. Each cluster receives a thematic name describing the dominant behavior of its members: "momentum" (assets in uptrend), "defensive" (more stable assets), "dollar" (assets sensitive to exchange rates), etc.
What is it for?
This map helps you understand the real diversification of a portfolio. If all your assets are in the same group, they will likely fall together during stress. Assets from different groups tend to offset each other, reducing overall risk.
How to read the chart:
• Dots = individual assets (stocks or ETFs)
• Lines = correlation between two assets (thicker = more correlated)
• Colors = each color represents a different thematic portfolio
• Proximity = nearby assets behave similarly
• Distance = distant assets offer diversification from each other
Imagine each asset (stock or ETF) as a dot. When two assets tend to rise and fall together, we draw a line between them. The more similar their behavior, the thicker the line. The result is a visual map where similarly-behaving assets are close together, and assets with different behavior are far apart.
How are portfolios formed?
From this network, the system automatically identifies natural clusters — groups of assets that move in similar ways. Each cluster receives a thematic name describing the dominant behavior of its members: "momentum" (assets in uptrend), "defensive" (more stable assets), "dollar" (assets sensitive to exchange rates), etc.
What is it for?
This map helps you understand the real diversification of a portfolio. If all your assets are in the same group, they will likely fall together during stress. Assets from different groups tend to offset each other, reducing overall risk.
How to read the chart:
• Dots = individual assets (stocks or ETFs)
• Lines = correlation between two assets (thicker = more correlated)
• Colors = each color represents a different thematic portfolio
• Proximity = nearby assets behave similarly
• Distance = distant assets offer diversification from each other
Source: EODHD (returns, correlations), Fama-French 5-factor
REITs — Real Estate Investment Trusts
REIT market overview: performance by sub-sector, geographic comparison, and recent top performers.
▸ Performance by Sub-Sector
🇺🇸 United States
| Sector | Ret 1M | Ret 6M | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office (12) | +13.5% | +15.4% | 5.8% |
| Healthcare Facilities (9) | +11.5% | +23.8% | 3.5% |
| Hotel & Motel (10) | +7.9% | +31.1% | 3.7% |
| Industrial (11) | +5.3% | +15.2% | 4.3% |
| Retail (17) | +4.8% | +13.9% | 3.6% |
| Residential (12) | +2.6% | -6.2% | 6.9% |
| Diversified (6) | +1.3% | +0.8% | 5.5% |
| Mortgage (20) | +0.7% | -8.6% | 13.7% |
| Specialty (11) | -4.2% | +12.5% | 4.3% |
🇧🇷 Brazil
| Sector | Ret 1M | Ret 6M | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Office (2) | +0.6% | +43.0% | 0.0% |
| Residential (2) | -0.2% | -0.9% | 0.0% |
| Diversified (33) | -0.9% | +11.9% | 0.5% |
| Industrial (2) | -4.5% | -6.1% | 0.0% |
| Specialty (4) | -5.7% | -12.9% | 0.0% |
| Retail (3) | -13.2% | -12.5% | 0.0% |
Source: EODHD (fundamentals_enrichment — REITs)
Market Regime
Identifies the current market state by analyzing 11 asset classes weekly: equities (SPY), value vs. growth (IWD−IWF), momentum (MTUM), quality (QUAL), long-term bonds (TLT), investment-grade credit (LQD), high-yield credit (HYG), emerging markets (EEM), volatility (VIXY), commodities (DBC), and gold (GLD). The model automatically detects the market's current "mood" — whether it is optimistic and accepting risk, cautious, or in protective mode.
Where We Are Now
Current reading of the 4 principal components
PC1
Risk Appetite
Neutral 72%
Neutral risk appetite — market without clear direction, no strong bias toward risk-on or risk-off.
PC2
Duration / Rates
Tightening 92%
Yields rising, bonds falling — monetary tightening pressure.
PC3
Cyclical Rotation
Balanced 92%
Balanced rotation — no clear bias between cyclicals and defensives.
PC4
Tail Risk
Elevated 56%
Elevated risk — above-normal volatility, but no panic. Heightened attention needed.
How regime identification works
We track 11 ETFs representing the main market forces: equities (SPY), value vs. growth (IWD−IWF), momentum (MTUM), quality (QUAL), long-term bonds (TLT), investment grade credit (LQD), high yield (HYG), emerging markets (EEM), volatility (VIXY), commodities (DBC) and gold (GLD). Each week, these assets move together or in opposite directions — and hidden in those patterns are market regimes.
We use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to extract the four dominant patterns from these 11 assets. Instead of analyzing each ETF separately, PCA finds the "invisible axes" that explain most of the joint movement. These axes are called Principal Components.
Together, these four components explain 77% of all weekly variation across the 11 factors — capturing the essential market dynamics in four complementary dimensions.
On each component, we run a Markov-Switching model that automatically selects the optimal number of regimes (K) by BIC, allowing us to detect regime changes in real time with the ideal granularity for each dimension.
PC1
Risk Appetite
The market thermometer
42% of variance
When this component rises, nearly everything rises together: equities, momentum, quality, credit and EM all move in the same direction, while volatility (VIXY) falls. It's the dominant force — the classic risk-on / risk-off axis.
Neutral 72%
Projection →
Risk-On
| ETF | Peso | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +0.438 | +0.9% | +1.3% |
| QUAL | +0.430 | +0.0% | +0.8% |
| MTUM | +0.408 | +1.6% | -0.6% |
| HYG | +0.399 | +0.2% | -0.1% |
| EEM | +0.365 | +2.9% | -0.2% |
How to read it
▲ high = risk-on (equities, momentum and credit rallying)
▼ low = risk-off (broad selloff, flight to safety)
▼ low = risk-off (broad selloff, flight to safety)
▶ What each ETF represents
| SPY | S&P 500 total return — broad US equity market exposure |
| QUAL | MSCI USA Quality Factor — stocks with high ROE, stable earnings, low leverage |
| MTUM | MSCI USA Momentum Factor — stocks with strong recent price trends |
| HYG | High-yield corporate bonds (below BBB) — higher credit risk, correlated with equities in stress |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets — broad EM equity exposure (China, Taiwan, India, Korea, Brazil) |
| LQD | Investment-grade corporate bonds (BBB and above) — credit risk with moderate spread |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index — diversified basket (energy, metals, agriculture) |
| VIXY | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures — direct proxy for market fear/volatility (VIX) |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares — gold price proxy, safe haven and inflation hedge |
| IWD − IWF | Russell 1000 Value minus Growth — spread between value and growth stocks (positive = value outperforms) |
| TLT | 20+ Year US Treasury bonds — long duration, rises when yields fall |
PC2
Duration / Rates
The rates channel
16% of variance
Captures the rates and safe-haven world, independent of risk appetite. TLT, LQD and gold dominate; commodities and equities on the opposite side. Distinguishes panic from rising rates.
Tightening 92%
| ETF | Peso | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | +0.678 | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| LQD | +0.498 | +0.0% | -0.3% |
| GLD | +0.343 | +1.1% | -1.1% |
| VIXY | +0.221 | -2.7% | -11.6% |
| DBC | −0.217 | +1.6% | -5.4% |
How to read it
▲ high = yields falling, bonds rallying (easing or flight-to-quality)
▼ low = yields rising, bonds falling (monetary tightening)
▼ low = yields rising, bonds falling (monetary tightening)
▶ What each ETF represents
| TLT | 20+ Year US Treasury bonds — long duration, rises when yields fall |
| LQD | Investment-grade corporate bonds (BBB and above) — credit risk with moderate spread |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares — gold price proxy, safe haven and inflation hedge |
| VIXY | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures — direct proxy for market fear/volatility (VIX) |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index — diversified basket (energy, metals, agriculture) |
| SPY | S&P 500 total return — broad US equity market exposure |
| IWD − IWF | Russell 1000 Value minus Growth — spread between value and growth stocks (positive = value outperforms) |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets — broad EM equity exposure (China, Taiwan, India, Korea, Brazil) |
| QUAL | MSCI USA Quality Factor — stocks with high ROE, stable earnings, low leverage |
| HYG | High-yield corporate bonds (below BBB) — higher credit risk, correlated with equities in stress |
| MTUM | MSCI USA Momentum Factor — stocks with strong recent price trends |
PC3
Cyclical Rotation
Value, commodities and cycle
11% of variance
Captures rotation between cyclical assets (value, commodities, gold) and defensive/growth. When it rises, the market favors sectors tied to the economic cycle and inflation.
Balanced 92%
Projection →
Balanced
| ETF | Peso | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| IWD − IWF | +0.637 | -1.3% | +0.9% |
| DBC | +0.592 | +1.6% | -5.4% |
| GLD | +0.404 | +1.1% | -1.1% |
| QUAL | −0.170 | +0.0% | +0.8% |
| SPY | −0.137 | +0.9% | +1.3% |
How to read it
▲ high = rotation to value and commodities (cycle expanding, reflation trade)
▼ low = rotation to growth and defensives (cycle slowing)
▼ low = rotation to growth and defensives (cycle slowing)
▶ What each ETF represents
| IWD − IWF | Russell 1000 Value minus Growth — spread between value and growth stocks (positive = value outperforms) |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index — diversified basket (energy, metals, agriculture) |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares — gold price proxy, safe haven and inflation hedge |
| QUAL | MSCI USA Quality Factor — stocks with high ROE, stable earnings, low leverage |
| SPY | S&P 500 total return — broad US equity market exposure |
| MTUM | MSCI USA Momentum Factor — stocks with strong recent price trends |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets — broad EM equity exposure (China, Taiwan, India, Korea, Brazil) |
| HYG | High-yield corporate bonds (below BBB) — higher credit risk, correlated with equities in stress |
| LQD | Investment-grade corporate bonds (BBB and above) — credit risk with moderate spread |
| VIXY | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures — direct proxy for market fear/volatility (VIX) |
| TLT | 20+ Year US Treasury bonds — long duration, rises when yields fall |
PC4
Tail Risk
Fear and protection
9% of variance
Dominated by volatility (VIXY) and gold — captures fear spikes and demand for protection that don't necessarily show in equity or bond prices.
Elevated 56%
Projection →
Elevated
| ETF | Peso | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| IWD − IWF | +0.645 | -1.3% | +0.9% |
| GLD | −0.582 | +1.1% | -1.1% |
| DBC | −0.291 | +1.6% | -5.4% |
| LQD | +0.245 | +0.0% | -0.3% |
| HYG | +0.204 | +0.2% | -0.1% |
How to read it
▲ high = fear spike (VIX rising, gold as refuge, elevated tail risk)
▼ low = calm market (complacency, compressed VIX)
▼ low = calm market (complacency, compressed VIX)
▶ What each ETF represents
| IWD − IWF | Russell 1000 Value minus Growth — spread between value and growth stocks (positive = value outperforms) |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares — gold price proxy, safe haven and inflation hedge |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index — diversified basket (energy, metals, agriculture) |
| LQD | Investment-grade corporate bonds (BBB and above) — credit risk with moderate spread |
| HYG | High-yield corporate bonds (below BBB) — higher credit risk, correlated with equities in stress |
| TLT | 20+ Year US Treasury bonds — long duration, rises when yields fall |
| VIXY | ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures — direct proxy for market fear/volatility (VIX) |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets — broad EM equity exposure (China, Taiwan, India, Korea, Brazil) |
| MTUM | MSCI USA Momentum Factor — stocks with strong recent price trends |
| QUAL | MSCI USA Quality Factor — stocks with high ROE, stable earnings, low leverage |
| SPY | S&P 500 total return — broad US equity market exposure |
Technical details
K=3 Markov-Switching on PC1+PC2 of 11 factor-ETFs (SPY, IWD−IWF, MTUM, QUAL, TLT, LQD, HYG, EEM, VIXY, DBC, GLD)
PCA: PC1 42% + PC2 16% + PC3 11% + PC4 9% = 77% variance · AIC: 2575 · BIC: 2643
PCA: PC1 42% + PC2 16% + PC3 11% + PC4 9% = 77% variance · AIC: 2575 · BIC: 2643
▸Methodological Note — Market Regime Model
What is a market regime?
Financial markets do not behave the same way all the time. There are periods of optimism, where most assets rise in coordinated fashion, and periods of stress, where everything falls together and investors seek protection. Between these extremes, there are transition moments with no clear direction. Identifying which "regime" we are in helps understand the current investment environment.
How does the identification work?
We track 11 asset classes weekly that represent the market's main forces: US equities, value vs. growth, momentum, quality, long-term bonds, corporate credit (high and low quality), emerging markets, volatility, commodities, and gold. Each week, these assets move together or in opposite directions — and in these co-movement patterns lie the regime signals.
What is the Markov-Switching model?
The Markov-Switching model (or regime-switching model) is a statistical technique that assumes the market can be in different "states" and switches between them over time. The name comes from Russian mathematician Andrei Markov, who studied processes where the next state depends only on the current state (not the entire past history).
In practice, the model does the following:
• Assumes distinct states exist (in our case: optimistic, neutral, and stressed)
• In each state, asset returns behave in statistically different ways (different means and volatilities)
• The model calculates, week by week, the probability of being in each state
• When one state's probability exceeds the others, a "regime change" occurs
Why is this useful for investors?
Different asset types perform better in different regimes. Growth stocks tend to shine in optimistic regimes. Gold and government bonds tend to protect in stress regimes. Knowing which regime we are in helps calibrate risk exposure — not as a crystal ball, but as a thermometer of the current situation.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Since there are 11 assets, analyzing them individually would be complex. We use a technique called PCA that extracts the 4 most important movement patterns from these 11 assets. Each pattern (principal component) captures a different market dimension: risk appetite, rates/duration, cyclical rotation, and tail risk. For each dimension, we run a separate Markov-Switching model, allowing a richer and more granular reading of the current regime.
Financial markets do not behave the same way all the time. There are periods of optimism, where most assets rise in coordinated fashion, and periods of stress, where everything falls together and investors seek protection. Between these extremes, there are transition moments with no clear direction. Identifying which "regime" we are in helps understand the current investment environment.
How does the identification work?
We track 11 asset classes weekly that represent the market's main forces: US equities, value vs. growth, momentum, quality, long-term bonds, corporate credit (high and low quality), emerging markets, volatility, commodities, and gold. Each week, these assets move together or in opposite directions — and in these co-movement patterns lie the regime signals.
What is the Markov-Switching model?
The Markov-Switching model (or regime-switching model) is a statistical technique that assumes the market can be in different "states" and switches between them over time. The name comes from Russian mathematician Andrei Markov, who studied processes where the next state depends only on the current state (not the entire past history).
In practice, the model does the following:
• Assumes distinct states exist (in our case: optimistic, neutral, and stressed)
• In each state, asset returns behave in statistically different ways (different means and volatilities)
• The model calculates, week by week, the probability of being in each state
• When one state's probability exceeds the others, a "regime change" occurs
Why is this useful for investors?
Different asset types perform better in different regimes. Growth stocks tend to shine in optimistic regimes. Gold and government bonds tend to protect in stress regimes. Knowing which regime we are in helps calibrate risk exposure — not as a crystal ball, but as a thermometer of the current situation.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Since there are 11 assets, analyzing them individually would be complex. We use a technique called PCA that extracts the 4 most important movement patterns from these 11 assets. Each pattern (principal component) captures a different market dimension: risk appetite, rates/duration, cyclical rotation, and tail risk. For each dimension, we run a separate Markov-Switching model, allowing a richer and more granular reading of the current regime.
Source: EODHD (weekly ETFs), PCA + Markov-Switching
Weekly Reading
COMMODITIES DASHBOARD DATA (week of 07/07/2026): Energy leads the gains with +105.6% YTD, followed by Grains (+12.6% YTD) and Industrial Metals (+11.2% YTD), while Precious Metals (+5.4% YTD) and Livestock (+4.3% YTD) show smaller gains; among individual commodities, Cotton stands out with +18.5% YTD and Sugar with +2.5% YTD, contrasting with declines in Cocoa (-37.6% YTD), Coffee (-23.1% YTD), and Orange Juice (-17.3% YTD). These movements reflect global geopolitical tensions and weather conditions that impact the supply of grains and energy products, as reported in recent news about rising prices of soybean oil and corn under external influence. The Energy (agg) category with +80.4% YTD and Gas Oil with +132.3% YTD show strong energy demand pressure, while Natural Gas (-7.8% YTD) indicates supply imbalance. Cointegration baskets out of equilibrium may be present between energy and agricultural commodities due to price volatility. The specific data confirm the upward trend in sectors linked to geopolitics and climate, with clear and measurable returns.
This panel tracks the performance of major global commodities, their statistical equilibrium relationships, and bilateral trade flows between countries. Together, these indicators reveal supply and demand pressures that affect FX, inflation, and producer stocks.
Commodities — Bloomberg Commodity Indices
Returns panel by category (click to filter). Data from Bloomberg Commodity[?] sub-indices (BCOM). For each commodity, we show the 5 stocks with the highest correlation[?] over the last 30 days.
How to read this panel: Categories are sorted by YTD return (year-to-date). Within each category, each commodity shows returns across different windows (1W, 1M, 3M, YTD). Green = up, red = down. Click a commodity to see the 5 global stocks with the highest correlation over the last 30 days.
▸Methodology Note — Commodities
What is it? The commodities panel shows the recent return of each commodity grouped by category (energy, precious metals, industrial metals, grains, softs, and livestock), using Bloomberg Commodity indices as reference.
How does it work? Returns are calculated from daily closing prices. For each commodity, we identify the 5 global stocks with the highest correlation over the last 30 days — stocks whose prices moved in the same direction and intensity.
Why is it useful? It helps identify which commodities are trending up or down, and which producer or consumer stocks may be affected.
How to read? Categories are sorted by YTD return. Within each category, check returns across different windows (1W, 1M, 3M, YTD). Click a commodity to see the most correlated stocks.
How does it work? Returns are calculated from daily closing prices. For each commodity, we identify the 5 global stocks with the highest correlation over the last 30 days — stocks whose prices moved in the same direction and intensity.
Why is it useful? It helps identify which commodities are trending up or down, and which producer or consumer stocks may be affected.
How to read? Categories are sorted by YTD return. Within each category, check returns across different windows (1W, 1M, 3M, YTD). Click a commodity to see the most correlated stocks.
Source: EODHD — Bloomberg Commodity Indices (BCOM)
Commodity Cointegration — Basket Equilibrium
Monitors historical relationships between commodities using cointegration[?] tests. When two assets that normally move together decouple, the z-score[?] indicates the deviation intensity. The half-life[?] estimates the expected correction time.
Cointegration analysis unavailable.
Source: EODHD commodities.db — Engle-Granger / Johansen
Global Trade Flow Map
Visualization of major bilateral trade[?] corridors, 2014–2025. Gold nodes are net exporters; blue are net importers. Data: UN Comtrade[?].
Trade data not available.
▸Methodology Note — Trade Flow
What is it? An interactive map of the largest bilateral commodity trade corridors, based on official UN data (UN Comtrade).
How does it work? For each selected commodity, the map shows the largest export and import flows between countries. Curved lines represent trade routes — thicker lines indicate higher traded value. Gold nodes are net exporters; blue nodes are net importers.
Why is it useful? It reveals trade dependencies between countries and how shocks to a producer (crop, sanctions, logistics) can affect global prices.
How to read? Select the commodity, exporter, and importer from the menus. Use the year buttons to compare evolution. Click a country to see origin and destination details.
How does it work? For each selected commodity, the map shows the largest export and import flows between countries. Curved lines represent trade routes — thicker lines indicate higher traded value. Gold nodes are net exporters; blue nodes are net importers.
Why is it useful? It reveals trade dependencies between countries and how shocks to a producer (crop, sanctions, logistics) can affect global prices.
How to read? Select the commodity, exporter, and importer from the menus. Use the year buttons to compare evolution. Click a country to see origin and destination details.
Source: UN Comtrade (bilateral trade, 2014–2025)
Weekly Reading
The dashboard data are unavailable, but May's inflation (IPCA 4.72% over 12 months, above the 4.5% ceiling) and COPOM's recent decision to reduce the Selic rate to 14.25% annually show that the inflation implicit in IPCA+ bonds remains high, limiting the Central Bank's ability to continue the interest rate cut cycle. Focus's GDP projections for 2026 have been revised upward, indicating robust growth, while the DI curve signals caution in the market as the future interest rate curve flattens. Bonds with a high spread in inflation correction (IPCA + 8% annually) may offer relevant returns in this high-interest, persistent-inflation scenario, but there is no investment recommendation. The most relevant recent event is May's inflation being higher than expected, which could lead COPOM to end the Selic reduction cycle at its next meeting.
This panel covers the Brazilian fixed income market — government bonds, yield curves, market expectations, and stochastic simulations. It helps evaluate bond opportunities, track inflation and rate expectations, and understand the term structure.
Fixed Income
How much do government bonds yield today — and are they paying above or below fair value? The table compares each IPCA+[?] bond's real rate with the theoretical ETTJ[?] curve from ANBIMA. Positive spreads indicate opportunity — the bond pays above the curve. Compare Monte Carlo scenarios with CDI[?] returns.
Dados indisponíveis
▸Methodology Note — Fixed Income
What is it? An integrated view of the Brazilian government bond market. It combines actual Tesouro Direto prices, the ANBIMA-estimated term structure (ETTJ), B3-traded futures curves, and the Central Bank's Focus Survey market projections.
How does it work?
• ETTJ Table: Compares each IPCA+ bond's real rate with the theoretical ANBIMA curve, calculating the spread in basis points and projected IRR.
• B3 Curves: Shows DI futures (nominal interest rate) and FX-hedged rate (FRC) curves, extracted daily from B3.
• ANBIMA ETTJ: Term structure estimated via Svensson model for 13 maturities (1M to 15Y), decomposed into nominal rate, real rate, and break-even inflation.
• Focus: Market median projections for 11 macro indicators, with historical accuracy analysis.
• Monte Carlo: Stochastic simulations of future IPCA and Selic paths using Vasicek and Brownian Bridge models, calibrated with Focus data and DI curve.
Why is it useful? It helps identify bonds trading above fair value (positive spread vs ETTJ), understand market expectations for rates and inflation, and simulate probabilistic scenarios.
How to read? In the table, positive spreads (green) indicate the bond offers a rate above the theoretical curve. In the curves, compare slopes to assess expectations for rate increases or decreases. In Focus, watch the direction of revision arrows.
How does it work?
• ETTJ Table: Compares each IPCA+ bond's real rate with the theoretical ANBIMA curve, calculating the spread in basis points and projected IRR.
• B3 Curves: Shows DI futures (nominal interest rate) and FX-hedged rate (FRC) curves, extracted daily from B3.
• ANBIMA ETTJ: Term structure estimated via Svensson model for 13 maturities (1M to 15Y), decomposed into nominal rate, real rate, and break-even inflation.
• Focus: Market median projections for 11 macro indicators, with historical accuracy analysis.
• Monte Carlo: Stochastic simulations of future IPCA and Selic paths using Vasicek and Brownian Bridge models, calibrated with Focus data and DI curve.
Why is it useful? It helps identify bonds trading above fair value (positive spread vs ETTJ), understand market expectations for rates and inflation, and simulate probabilistic scenarios.
How to read? In the table, positive spreads (green) indicate the bond offers a rate above the theoretical curve. In the curves, compare slopes to assess expectations for rate increases or decreases. In Focus, watch the direction of revision arrows.
Source: Tesouro Direto, ANBIMA (ETTJ), BCB SGS (IPCA, CDI)
B3 curve data unavailable
▸Methodology Note — Yield Curves
What is it? Yield curves show the rate the market expects for each maturity. Two sets:
• B3 Curves: Extracted from futures contracts traded on B3 — DI1 reflects the expected nominal interest rate, and FRC (FX-hedged rate) reflects the cost of FX hedging in USD.
• ANBIMA ETTJ: Theoretical curves estimated by ANBIMA using the Svensson model (6 parameters) for 13 maturities (1 month to 15 years). Decomposed into: nominal rate (Prefixado), real rate (IPCA+), and break-even inflation (difference between the two).
Why is it useful? Curve slope reveals expectations: an upward-sloping curve suggests the market expects higher future rates; inverted, a decrease. Dashed curves show the previous week for comparison — shifts indicate recent changes in expectations.
How to read? Compare solid curves (current) with dashed (previous week). If the solid curve is above the dashed, rates have opened (market more pessimistic on rates). Break-even inflation (yellow) is the difference between Prefixado and IPCA+ — shows how much inflation the market prices for each maturity.
• B3 Curves: Extracted from futures contracts traded on B3 — DI1 reflects the expected nominal interest rate, and FRC (FX-hedged rate) reflects the cost of FX hedging in USD.
• ANBIMA ETTJ: Theoretical curves estimated by ANBIMA using the Svensson model (6 parameters) for 13 maturities (1 month to 15 years). Decomposed into: nominal rate (Prefixado), real rate (IPCA+), and break-even inflation (difference between the two).
Why is it useful? Curve slope reveals expectations: an upward-sloping curve suggests the market expects higher future rates; inverted, a decrease. Dashed curves show the previous week for comparison — shifts indicate recent changes in expectations.
How to read? Compare solid curves (current) with dashed (previous week). If the solid curve is above the dashed, rates have opened (market more pessimistic on rates). Break-even inflation (yellow) is the difference between Prefixado and IPCA+ — shows how much inflation the market prices for each maturity.
Source: B3 Derivatives (DI1, FRC)
Source: ANBIMA via pyettj (Svensson model)
Focus Survey — Market Expectations
| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | Trend | Median | Trend | |
| IPCA | 5.30% [4.30 — 5.85] |
4.18% [3.00 — 6.00] |
||
| Selic | 14.00% a.a. [12.25 — 14.50] |
12.00% a.a. [9.75 — 14.25] |
||
| FX Rate (BRL/USD) | 5.20 [4.75 — 6.00] |
5.28 [4.50 — 6.00] |
||
| GDP | 1.99% [1.18 — 2.40] |
1.69% [0.72 — 2.59] |
||
| IGP-M | 5.68% [3.61 — 8.24] |
4.10% [2.22 — 5.90] |
||
| Gross Debt / GDP | 83.32% PIB [80.60 — 86.00] |
87.00% PIB [81.90 — 90.00] |
||
| Primary Balance / GDP | -0.50% PIB [-1.00 — 0.00] |
-0.40% PIB [-1.13 — 0.50] |
||
| IPCA Administered | 5.00% [3.29 — 6.90] |
3.86% [2.34 — 6.08] |
||
| IPCA Services | 5.80% [3.60 — 6.80] |
5.10% [2.68 — 6.80] |
||
| IPCA Market Prices | 5.47% [2.80 — 6.43] |
4.34% [2.17 — 5.54] |
||
| Unemployment | 5.40% [4.71 — 6.40] |
6.00% [4.80 — 8.00] |
||
Source: BCB / Focus Survey (2026-07-07)
Focus Survey — Historical Error & Bias (2016–2025)
| Indicator | 6M MAE | 12M MAE | 24M MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPCA |
1.36
bias -0.3 · n=10
|
1.38 ▼
bias -0.6 · n=10
|
1.59 ▼
bias -1.0 · n=10
|
| Selic |
0.85
bias -0.1 · n=10
|
2.29
bias -0.1 · n=10
|
4.55 ▼
bias -0.8 · n=10
|
| FX Rate |
0.27
bias -0.1 · n=10
|
0.61
bias -0.1 · n=10
|
0.76 ▼
bias -0.5 · n=10
|
| GDP |
0.98 ▼
bias -0.9 · n=10
|
1.86
bias -0.2 · n=10
|
2.07 ▲
bias +0.5 · n=10
|
| IGP-M |
3.84 ▼
bias -1.5 · n=10
|
5.81 ▼
bias -3.1 · n=10
|
6.14 ▼
bias -3.6 · n=10
|
| Unemployment |
1.44 ▲
bias +1.4 · n=4
|
2.20 ▲
bias +2.2 · n=4
|
3.36 ▲
bias +3.4 · n=3
|
MAE = mean absolute error. Bias: ▲ = overestimates, ▼ = underestimates (|bias| > 0.3)
How to read this table: Each row is a macro indicator (Selic, IPCA, GDP, etc.) with the market median projection for this year and next. Trend arrows (▲ / ▼) show whether projections are being revised up or down in recent weeks. Sparklines show the evolution of projections over time.
▸Methodology Note — Focus Survey
What is it? The Focus Survey is a weekly poll by Brazil's Central Bank collecting projections from ~130 financial institutions for key macroeconomic indicators: Selic, IPCA, GDP, FX, trade balance, and others.
How does it work? Every Friday the BCB publishes the projection medians for the current and next year. The table shows these medians along with sparklines revealing the recent revision trend. Arrows indicate whether projections are being revised up or down.
Accuracy Analysis: Below the table, we analyze Focus's track record since 2016 — measuring mean absolute error (MAE), bias (whether the market tends to be optimistic or pessimistic), and how accuracy varies with horizon (December projections are more precise than January ones).
Why is it useful? Shows market consensus — and whether that consensus is being revised. When many projections shift in the same direction, it may signal a changing macro outlook.
How does it work? Every Friday the BCB publishes the projection medians for the current and next year. The table shows these medians along with sparklines revealing the recent revision trend. Arrows indicate whether projections are being revised up or down.
Accuracy Analysis: Below the table, we analyze Focus's track record since 2016 — measuring mean absolute error (MAE), bias (whether the market tends to be optimistic or pessimistic), and how accuracy varies with horizon (December projections are more precise than January ones).
Why is it useful? Shows market consensus — and whether that consensus is being revised. When many projections shift in the same direction, it may signal a changing macro outlook.
▸Methodology Note — Monte Carlo Simulations
What is it? Monte Carlo simulation generates thousands of possible paths for an indicator, allowing you to visualize the distribution of future scenarios instead of a single point forecast.
How does it work? Two distinct models:
• IPCA (Vasicek): Mean-reverting process — inflation tends to converge to the Focus target, with speed calibrated by historical persistence. Volatility is estimated from past Focus forecast errors.
• Selic (Brownian Bridge): Path guided by the B3 DI1 futures curve as a "backbone", connecting the current value to the Focus target. Uncertainty grows then shrinks approaching the anchor point.
Why is it useful? Instead of asking "what will Selic be?", it shows "what is the probability of Selic being above X%?". Allows assessing tail risks and extreme scenarios.
How to read? The dark band (P25–P75) covers the 50% most likely scenarios. The light band (P5–P95) covers 90% of scenarios. The center line is the median. The probability card summarizes the chance of exceeding a specific threshold.
How does it work? Two distinct models:
• IPCA (Vasicek): Mean-reverting process — inflation tends to converge to the Focus target, with speed calibrated by historical persistence. Volatility is estimated from past Focus forecast errors.
• Selic (Brownian Bridge): Path guided by the B3 DI1 futures curve as a "backbone", connecting the current value to the Focus target. Uncertainty grows then shrinks approaching the anchor point.
Why is it useful? Instead of asking "what will Selic be?", it shows "what is the probability of Selic being above X%?". Allows assessing tail risks and extreme scenarios.
How to read? The dark band (P25–P75) covers the 50% most likely scenarios. The light band (P5–P95) covers 90% of scenarios. The center line is the median. The probability card summarizes the chance of exceeding a specific threshold.
Source: BCB Focus (targets), B3 DI1 (curve), historical Focus errors (volatility)
Weekly Analysis 07/07/2026 01:37
The VADER sentiment framework of headlines shows a still moderately negative bias, highlighting India (-0.57), Germany (-0.30), Canada (-0.30), China (-0.23), Japan (-0.23), Iran (-0.16), and Saudi Arabia (-0.11), while the US appears slightly positive (+0.06) and the UK neutral. This pattern aligns with the week's narrative: discussion around commodities, especially oil, which retreated to near "pre-war" levels around $68 per barrel, following the memorandum between the US and Iran on ending the naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and comments on OPEC gradually increasing production. At the same time, the week was positively balanced for US indices, with gains around 2% in major benchmarks, consistent with the slightly constructive sentiment toward the US economy and Q2 results.
In the global index map, leadership is clear in technology and selected emerging markets: South Korea with an impressive YTD of +93.3%, a +27.8% gain in 1M and +50.0% in 3M, supported by positive GDP of 1.25% and moderate inflation at 3.34%, despite relatively low nominal interest (2.82%) and slightly negative real interest (-0.5%). Taiwan (+39.0% YTD, +9.4% in 1M, +24.7% in 3M) reinforces the elevated beta linked to the semiconductor chain. Nigeria appears with strong performance (+60.9% YTD, +18.1% in 1M, +40.5% in 3M) despite extremely high inflation (CPI 33.24%), with no interest and curve data, suggesting a high risk premium and perhaps greater weight of local factors (asset repricing in a currency that has depreciated heavily in recent capital outflows). Among developed markets, Italy (+12.5% YTD, +4.5% in 1M, +12.6% in 3M) and Japan (+20.0% YTD, +4.3% in 1M) advance more gradually, with more stable fundamentals: Italy with GDP 0.83%, inflation 1.91%, and a well-sloped curve (+1.59); Japan with positive GDP, negative inflation (-0.4%), and still-low interest rates (1.24%), in an environment of accommodative monetary policy.
On the laggards side, the bottom of the monthly ranking brings more defensive moves and significant corrections. Brazil is the highlight: despite a positive YTD of +9.8%, the index falls -10.5% in 1M and -6.7% in 3M, in a context of reasonable GDP (2.47%), inflation at 5.53%, and very high nominal interest at 14.25%, generating the highest real interest in the sample, around +8.7%, and a slightly inverted curve (-0.27). This set suggests relevant financial tightening and lower domestic risk tolerance in the short term, consistent with price corrections after a strong start to the year. Indonesia shows an even more pressured framework: YTD -25.5%, -15.1% in 1M and -19.8% in 3M, despite robust GDP (4.93%), low inflation (1.95%), and high real interest (+3.5%), indicating a possible combination of adverse external flows and concern about specific factors (politics, regional geopolitics, or high sensitivity to the dollar's direction). Australia also corrects (-1.4% YTD, -4.0% in 1M, -4.1% in 3M), with moderate inflation (3.17%) and a relatively high interest rate (4.43%) in a global environment where commodities lost momentum with oil falling to $68.
In FX, the 3M winners against the dollar concentrate on EMEA currencies and some G10s: Russian ruble (+7.8%), Israeli shekel (+6.2%), Hungarian forint (+4.3%), Norwegian krone (+3.2%), Egyptian pound (+2.5%), Brazilian real (+2.1%), Australian dollar (+1.4%), and Mexican peso (+0.9%). This framework is consistent with the normalization of the geopolitical risk premium in energy and the perception that some currencies with high carry or commodity exposure are beginning to recover after the Middle East war shock. On the other hand, among losers, we see the Thai baht (-1.6%), Korean won (-1.8%), Turkish lira (-2.2%), Romanian leu (-2.7%), Colombian peso (-2.9%), Philippine peso (-3.6%), Indian rupee (-4.1%), and Indonesian rupiah (-4.1%) depreciating. In economies like Indonesia and India, this depreciation occurs despite positive real interest rates (+3.5% in Indonesia, +2.5% in India), suggesting that risk factors (negative geopolitical sentiment in India, -0.57, and perception of vulnerability in Asian emerging markets) outweigh carry support. Without the specific FX→equity coefficients here, the simultaneous behavior of weak currency and strongly negative stocks in Indonesia signals a likely negative loading: currency depreciation amplifies the equity drawdown. In Brazil, the combination of an appreciated real in 3M (+2.1%) and a correcting stock market of -6.7% suggests a regime where FX is less directly associated with equity performance in the short term, possibly with weaker or even inverse loading.
The risk perception by volatility and credit markets indicates an environment of selective complacency in developed equities, but with pockets of stress in emerging markets and weaker credit. S&P 500 volatility fell from 21.0 to 15.8 (-24.9%), Dow (VXD) volatility from 21.9 to 14.4 (-34.3%), and Russell 2000 volatility from 29.1 to 21.6 (-25.8%), showing strong compression of perceived risk in US stocks, in line with recent index gains and the slightly positive VADER sentiment for the US. In contrast, Nasdaq 100 volatility practically stabilized (from 27.0 to 28.0, +3.5%), suggesting the market continues to price greater uncertainty in growth/tech names. In emerging markets, the VXEEM index rose from 33.3 to 38.4 (+15.1%), in line with declines in markets like Indonesia (-25.5% YTD) and greater sensitivity to global flows. In commodities, the picture is more benign: gold volatility (GVZ) plummeted from 37.9 to 26.0 (-31.3%) and oil volatility (OVX) from 93.1 to 41.6 (-55.3%), consistent with the normalization of the geopolitical premium following the US-I